WORLD-GENERATION MAY/JUNE 2016
22
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DELIVERY SYSTEM INTRANSITION
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 8
Procurement Planning (LTPP) process
does not do.
The IRP will also bind the utilities to
meet targets to procure at least 50% of the
RPS targets by 2030. Furthermore utilities
will be required to determine which combi-
nations of resources are best at meeting
residual needs. And they must strengthen
the transmission and distribution systems
and enhance distribution systems and
demand-side energy management.
Randolph said there are three options
for imposing the IRP – apparently the com-
mission has not yet decided its approach.
One is that the CPUC develops the method-
ology and administers the IRP process, set-
ting specific goals and targets for each
resource program. The second is that the
CPUC establishes reliability needs and
GHG targets for each utility, but the utili-
ties develop the IRP methodology and
administer the IRP process. They would
also decide on resource decisions and strat-
egies.
The third option would be a hybrid IRP
approach.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & EVS HAVE ROLE
Robert Oglesby, executive director of
the California Energy Commission, tackled
the role of demand given the expanding
roles of energy efficiency, demand
response and electric vehicles. He said
California’s electricity sector has reduced
GHG emissions 20% below 1990 levels
between 2008 and 2013. In that time,
renewable capacity has almost doubled and
out-of-state coal generation has been
reduced by more than half.
Oglesby reiterated what others had
already said – that renewables have
reduced peak forecasts and pushed the
peaks back an hour. This has changed how
the transmission system works, he said.
Energy efficiency can have the most
impact on future demand, Oglesby argued.
Increasing energy efficiency in the future
could lower baseline peak demand fore-
casts by about 5,500 MW in 2026. He point-
ed out buildings use about 68% of the
state’s electricity and about 55% of natural
gas and that the energy used by buildings
produce about 25% of GHG emissions.
Oglesby turned his discussion to zero-
emission electric vehicles. “Night time
charging was thought to be the most popu-
lar way to charge electric vehicles. With
the oversupply of power in the afternoons
there will need to be a lot of chargers in the
work place, he said. At the same time elec-
tric vehicles may provide an energy source
to stabilize the grid. We could see EVs load-
ing up electricity in the early afternoons
and returning it to the grid later in the day
when the lights and other appliances come
on, thereby relieving the pressure on gen-
eration to ramp up supplies.
CONTROLLING DELIVERABLES
Arne Olson, a partner at
Energy+Environmental Economics, pre-
sented some solutions to the projected
over-generation of wind and solar by 2030,
showing that solar saturation is the domi-
nant challenge at 50% RPS. Curtailment of
wind and solar will become commonplace
at that level. Solar PV will represent 5%
over-generation when the state reaches 33%
RPS, and 65% when the state reaches 50%
RPS. Wind and geothermal will represent
2% and 22% over-generation, respectively, at
those RPS levels.
Olson’s solutions to integrating renew-
ables successfully include time-of-use rates
as discussed above, subhourly renewable
dispatch at Cal ISO which would allow the
system to operate with fewer thermal
resources during over-generation events
and renewable portfolio diversity to avoid
curtailment by spreading renewable pro-
duction over more hours of the year.
These solutions would be low cost, he
said. Other solutions have costs and bene-
fits that need to be evaluated: additional
storage, gas retrofits to make existing
resources more flexible at a low cost and
flexible loads with advanced demand
response to shift energy consumption
toward hours with over-generation.
HECO LOADS SHIFT DRAMATICALLY
Dr. Gary Dorris, CEO and Co-Founder
of ASCEND ANALYTICS, discussed Hawaii
Electric Company’s load levels and profiles
which have changed dramatically in a short
time-span of 10 years due to the dramatic
increase in residential solar installations in
the utility’s territory.
Dorris illustrated that large increases
in this distributed generation of solar PV
cause the peak load periods to occur hours
later each day even on Saturdays.
Furthermore, he showed that ramp pat-
terns have increased in frequency of chang-
es in ramp direction. (They fluctuated more
and at lower levels during afternoon hours
before reaching the peak load periods.)
Regarding regulation prices at Cal ISO,
Dorris concluded that the merchant value
of energy storage batteries, while prices are
going down is challenged because of low
ancillary service prices, a message heard
from other speakers.
California is considered to be a national
leader in the evolution being demanded of
utilities throughout the country. The issues
discussed at this energy summit will contin-
ue to be discussed and solved over next
decade as the renewables industries contin-
ue to mature and change the nature of how
electricity is delivered to each of us.
NEXT ISSUE
September/October 2016
Closing September 1, 2016
Bueche Directory
REFF West Coast
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PERSPECTIVE
